We develop an air mobility index and use the newly developed Apple's driving trend index to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the crude oil price. We use quantile regression and stationary and non-stationary extreme value models to study the impact. We find that both the \textit{air mobility index} and \textit{driving trend index} significantly influence lower and upper quantiles as well as the median of the WTI crude oil price. The extreme value model suggests that an event like COVID-19 may push oil prices to a negative territory again as the air mobility decreases drastically during such pandemics.
翻译:我们开发了一个空中移动指数,并使用新开发的苹果公司驱动趋势指数来评估COVID-19对原油价格的影响,我们使用四分位回归和固定和非静止极端价值模型来研究这种影响,我们发现,在这种流行病期间,由于空中移动急剧下降,CCOVID-19这样的事件可能会再次将石油价格推向负面领土。