In early 2021 the United States Capitol in Washington was stormed during a riot and violent attack. Although the storming was merely an instance in a long sequence of events, it provided a testimony for many observers who had claimed that online actions, including the propagation of disinformation, have offline consequences. Soon after, a number of papers have been published about the relation between online disinformation and offline violence, among other related relations. Hitherto, the effects upon political protests have been unexplored. This paper thus evaluates such effects with a time series cross-sectional sample of 125 countries in a period between 2000 and 2019. The results are mixed. Based on Bayesian multi-level regression modeling, (i) there indeed is an effect between online disinformation and offline protests, but the effect is partially meditated by political polarization. The results are clearer in a sample of countries belonging to the European Economic Area. With this sample, (ii) offline protest counts increase from online disinformation disseminated by domestic governments, political parties, and politicians as well as by foreign governments. Furthermore, (iii) Internet shutdowns and governmental monitoring of social media tend to decrease the counts. With these results, the paper contributes to the blossoming disinformation research by modeling the impact of disinformation upon offline phenomenon. The contribution is important due to the various policy measures planned or already enacted.
翻译:2021年初,华盛顿的美国国会在暴动和暴力袭击中遭到暴动。虽然暴风雨只是一连串事件的一个实例,但它为许多观察员提供了证词,他们声称在线行动,包括传播虚假信息,会产生离线后果。不久之后,发表了一些关于在线虚假信息与离线暴力的关系的文件,除其他关系外,还发表了一些关于在线虚假信息与离线暴力之间关系的文件。对政治抗议的影响一直没有得到探讨。本文因此用2000年至2019年期间125个国家的系列跨部门抽样评估了这种影响。结果好坏参半。根据巴伊西亚多级回归模型,(一) 网上信息与离线抗议之间确实有影响,但部分效果被政治两极分化所掩盖。在属于欧洲经济区的抽样国家中,结果更加清晰。(二) 离线抗议从国内政府、政党和政治家以及外国政府传播的在线不实信息中计算出更多。此外,(三) 互联网停机和政府对政府监测的多级回归模型,(一) 在线信息与离线抗议对重要媒体政策的影响已经逐渐减少。