We consider an urn model with multiple drawing and random time-dependent addition matrix. The model is very general with respect to previous literature: the number of sampled balls at each time-step is random, the addition matrix has general random entries. For the proportion of balls of a given color, we prove almost sure convergence results and fluctuation theorems (through CLTs in the sense of stable convergence and of almost sure conditional convergence, which are stronger than convergence in distribution). Asymptotic confidence intervals are given for the limit proportion, whose distribution is generally unknown.
翻译:我们考虑的是具有多个绘图和随机时间性附加矩阵的骨髓模型。相对于以前的文献来说,该模型非常笼统:每个时间步骤的样本球数量是随机的,添加矩阵有一般随机条目。对于特定颜色的球比例,我们几乎可以肯定趋同结果和波动理论(通过CLT, 即稳定的趋同和几乎肯定的有条件趋同,这比分布上的趋同要强 ) 。 对于限制比例,给出了非受体信任间隔,其分布一般未知。