Many critical policy decisions, from strategic investments to the allocation of humanitarian aid, rely on data about the geographic distribution of wealth and poverty. Yet many poverty maps are out of date or exist only at very coarse levels of granularity. Here we develop the first micro-estimates of wealth and poverty that cover the populated surface of all 135 low and middle-income countries (LMICs) at 2.4km resolution. The estimates are built by applying machine learning algorithms to vast and heterogeneous data from satellites, mobile phone networks, topographic maps, as well as aggregated and de-identified connectivity data from Facebook. We train and calibrate the estimates using nationally-representative household survey data from 56 LMICs, then validate their accuracy using four independent sources of household survey data from 18 countries. We also provide confidence intervals for each micro-estimate to facilitate responsible downstream use. These estimates are provided free for public use in the hope that they enable targeted policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, provide the foundation for new insights into the causes and consequences of economic development and growth, and promote responsible policymaking in support of the Sustainable Development Goals.
翻译:从战略投资到人道主义援助分配等许多关键政策决定都依赖关于财富和贫穷的地理分布的数据。然而,许多贫穷图已经过时,或只存在于非常粗略的颗粒度上。我们在这里编制了第一份关于财富和贫穷的微观估计,覆盖所有135个中低收入国家(LMICs)在2.4公里分辨率上的人口表面。这些估计是通过将机器学习算法应用于来自卫星、移动电话网络、地形图以及来自脸书的庞大和混杂的数据,以及综合和分解的连接数据。我们利用来自56个LMICs的具有国家代表性的家庭调查数据来培训和校准估计数,然后利用来自18个国家的4个独立的家庭调查数据来源来验证其准确性。我们还为每一项微观估计提供了信任期,以便利负责任的下游使用。这些估计是免费供公众使用的,希望它们能够对COVID-19大流行病作出有针对性的政策反应,为重新认识经济发展和增长的原因和后果提供基础,并促进负责任的决策以支持可持续发展目标。