In this study, we propose a clustering-based approach on time-series data to capture COVID-19 spread patterns in the early period of the pandemic. We analyze the spread dynamics based on the early and post stages of COVID-19 for different countries based on different geographical locations. Furthermore, we investigate the confinement policies and the effect they made on the spread. We found that implementations of the same confinement policies exhibit different results in different countries. Specifically, lockdowns become less effective in densely populated regions, because of the reluctance to comply with social distancing measures. Lack of testing, contact tracing, and social awareness in some countries forestall people from self-isolation and maintaining social distance. Large labor camps with unhealthy living conditions also aid in high community transmissions in countries depending on foreign labor. Distrust in government policies and fake news instigate the spread in both developed and under-developed countries. Large social gatherings play a vital role in causing rapid outbreaks almost everywhere. While some countries were able to contain the spread by implementing strict and widely adopted confinement policies, some others contained the spread with the help of social distancing measures and rigorous testing capacity. An early and rapid response at the beginning of the pandemic is necessary to contain the spread, yet it is not always sufficient.
翻译:在这项研究中,我们提议对时间序列数据采取集群办法,以捕捉该流行病早期的COVID-19传播模式;我们分析基于不同地理位置的不同国家COVID-19早期和后阶段的传播动态;此外,我们调查禁闭政策及其对扩散的影响;我们发现,不同国家执行同样的禁闭政策的结果不同;具体地说,在人口稠密地区,由于不愿遵守社会隔离措施,禁闭变得不那么有效;一些国家缺乏检测、联系追踪和社会意识,防止人们自闭和保持社会距离;大型生活条件不健康的劳动营还帮助依赖外国劳动力的国家的高度社区传播;对政府政策的不信任和假消息煽动在发达国家和欠发达国家蔓延;大型社会集会在几乎各地造成迅速爆发疾病方面起着关键作用;虽然一些国家通过执行严格和广泛采用的禁闭政策能够控制这种蔓延;有些国家缺乏检测、联系追踪和社会意识,防止人们自闭和保持社会距离;大量生活条件不卫生的劳动营地还有助于在依赖外国劳动力的国家进行社区传播;对政府政策和假新闻的煽动在发达国家和欠发达国家进行传播;大型社会集会几乎能够通过执行严格和广泛采用的禁闭政策来遏制这种流行病的蔓延,但这种疾病的早期和迅速反应并非必要。