基于多种网络模型的舆论领袖识别及其传播影响力仿真研究

项目名称： 基于多种网络模型的舆论领袖识别及其传播影响力仿真研究

项目编号： No.71503246

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 马宁

作者单位： 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

项目金额： 17万元

中文摘要： 舆论领袖对网络舆情传播具有重要影响，识别舆论领袖并了解其传播影响力，可有效提升社会治理水平。本项目以舆论领袖为研究对象，综合复杂网络分析、系统控制模型和建模仿真技术等理论方法，开展以下三方面研究：①结构建模是舆论领袖研究的基础：构建真实刻画舆情信息传播的网络模型，包括多关系网络模型、多要素网络模型和多层次网络模型；②精准识别是舆论领袖研究的核心：基于所构建的多种网络模型，提出可识别舆论领袖的网络结构指标或网络链接算法，并结合舆情实例分析不同方法的准确性和适用性；③仿真模拟是舆论领袖研究的深化：根据舆情传播“从无到有”、“从此到彼”、“从有到无”三种演化情境，分别对舆论领袖的“扩散”影响力、“引导”影响力和“证伪”影响力进行仿真分析。项目旨在建模、分析和仿真工作基础上，将理论与实践相结合，以舆论领袖为主要抓手，预测在其影响下的舆情发展态势，提高政府对网络社会突发事件舆情传播的前瞻性和管控力。

中文关键词： 网络舆情；舆论领袖；复杂网络模型；传播影响力；仿真

英文摘要： Opinion leader has a major impact to the spread of online public opinion. To identify opinion leader and realize its spreading influence can effectively promote the level of social governance. This project aims to research the opinion leader base on the theoretical method of complex network analysis, system control model and simulation technologies, and do the related research as the following three aspects: ①Structure modeling is the foundation of opinion leader research: To build the network model which can reflex the real public opinion information spread and includes multi-relational network model, multi-factor network model and multi-level network model. ②Precise recognition is the core of the opinion leader research: Base on variety of network model which has been built, to propose the structure index or ranking algorithm which can identify the opinion leader and analyze the accuracy and applicability of different models according to public opinion instance. ③Simulation is the deepening of the opinion leader research: base on three kind of public opinion evolution scenario which are “from un-existing public opinion to existing”, “from one kind of topic to another one” and “from existing public opinion to un-existing”, to respectively analyze the “spread”, “guide” and “disprove” influence of the opinion leader through simulation. Base on the modeling, analysis and simulation, to combine the theory and practice, together with the condition that the opinion leader as the starting point, this project aims to predict development trend under the influence of opinion leaders and improve the government’s forward looking and control to the public opinion of unconventional emergency.

英文关键词： online public opinion;opinion leader;complex network model;spreading influence;simulation